In April 1997, Jack Faucett Associates (JFA) submitted a report to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) that provided freight traffic forecasts to 2050 for the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois Waterway. The forecasts were used as inputs into a benefit-cost model that evaluates and prioritizes capital improvement proposals for the rivers.

The forecasts have come under sharp criticism because recent data shows that barge traffic has been grossly overestimated. The discrepancy is due in large part to inaccurate forecasts in U.S. grain exports, particularly corn. In September 2000, JFA provided revised forecasts to COE. The revised forecasts extrapolate USDA’s Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2009 out 50 years for corn, and use historic data for the past 11 years for soybeans.

This forecasting method still raises significant concerns. This review details some of these concerns and calls for a more thorough assessment of U.S. grain export forecasts.