Minneapolis - Grain export projections used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and agriculture policy-makers have consistently over-estimated actual exports, according to a new study by Dr. C. Phillip Baumel, a professor of economics at Iowa State University.

The study, "How US Grain Export Projections from Large Scale Agricultural Sector Models Compare With Reality," was commissioned by the Minneapolis-based Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP). It analyzed the two major sources of export projections: the USDA Agricultural Baseline and the Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Agricultural Baseline.