IATP’s new report, Addressing climate change risks in import dependent and major food producing countries: An analysis of cereals production and trade flows, highlights the risks of climate change for import dependent and major food producing countries, with a special look at the impact on the production of cereals and trade flows. The report focuses on maize, rice and wheat, which together account for the largest share of global food staples and over 60% of global food calories. Climate change is already affecting farmers, agriculture production and trade, as well as food security, around the world and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Against these threats and the potential for rising food prices as costs to produce and procure food increase in the face of climate-related challenges, our recommendations seek to inform policymakers and advocates on urgent measures to mitigate climate risks to cereal production and trade, while enhancing sustainable food production using agroecological principles. This timely analysis arrives as the U.N. World Meteorological Organization has confirmed 2023 as the hottest year in the past 150 years, with global temperatures 1.43˚C above pre-industrial levels.
Agriculture accounts for more than half of the earth’s land surface and 70% of freshwater use, and it is deeply vulnerable to the worsening climate crisis and increasing water scarcity. At the same time, agriculture food systems also contribute roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and are the main driver of biodiversity loss, with two-thirds of emission stemming from agricultural production, including meat production and forestry. Our report scrutinizes these dynamics with a focus on how shifting climate patterns are affecting cereal production and trade. We identify where food production is most at risk and how these challenges can be mitigated.
From 2000-20, maize (or corn), rice and wheat were the most important contributors to human diet in all regions, with shares ranging from 24% in Oceania to 50% or more in regions, such as Africa and Asia. These three cereal crops also cover more cultivated areas than other crops. Analysis shows that only 37% of the harvested area of major crops is used for direct food consumption. The balance is directed towards exports, animal feed, biofuels, industry uses such as textiles and pharmaceuticals, processing into products such as soap or alcohol, and seed production.
Recent studies highlight the global repercussions of accelerating climate change, including negative impacts on soil and plant health, biodiversity and yields. Increasing regularity of severe weather is affecting farmers in developed countries — who include industrialized and smallholder farmers — but more especially those in developing and least developed countries who are the most impoverished farmers and vulnerable populations (including subsistence farmers that rely on rain-fed agriculture, pastoralists and fishers). Climate change is, therefore, contributing to increased inequality and poverty.
We highlight how the effects of climate change on agriculture are unevenly distributed across the world. Climate change will likely affect crop production in low latitude countries negatively, while effects in northern latitudes may be positive or negative. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17% and India 20-40%. Recent studies based on 21st-century projections and using the latest-generation crop and climate simulation models identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops coupled with substantial associated uncertainties. The studies found declining yield responses for maize, soybean and rice due to GHG emissions and warming temperatures and that the average global crop yields for maize could decrease by 24% by late century, with declines becoming apparent as early as 2030.
Notwithstanding the above findings, we also note that climate scientists hold divergent views on the exact impact of climate change on factors, such as warming temperatures, rainfall, production patterns and crop yields. There are mixed views on the impact of climate change for major cereals producers, such as the United States, but we observe some noteworthy trends. Climate-related disruptions for cereals production are forecast in all regions, subject to variations. Cereals production, especially from rain-fed agriculture in regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa (accounting for 95% of the region’s farmland) and the Southern Cone of Latin America, is expected to decline due to seasonal water stress. Falling production could be partially mitigated using improved water governance and diversified cropping systems. Of great concern is that the effects of climate change on agriculture are occurring sooner than initially projected in regions, such as Africa, Asia and Oceania, as evidenced by recurring droughts and flooding. Rice production is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and in the long run, wheat will also experience declines, forcing the relocation of production to higher elevation or the farming of alternative crops.
We also highlight high levels of market concentration in supply. The top 3-5 exporting nations of wheat, rice and maize dominate world markets. In 2022, the top three exporting countries accounted for 64% of maize volumes, 57% of rice and 45% of wheat. There is greater diversity among cereal-importing countries. Concentration in production and exports poses risks of price volatility and supply disruptions due to climate change and anthropogenic challenges. Overreliance on three cereal grains for calories also presents nutritional challenges. Instead, IATP advocates for global food policy and trade that supports dietary diversity.
We conclude the report with a few key takeaways that should guide national policymaking and international cooperation in support of more resilient food systems:
Improving domestic and regional food production is a critical risk-mitigation measure for food importers to improve food security.
Reducing food loss and waste is critical to tackling climate change and food insecurity, and for more sustainable use of natural resources.
Countries should explore agroecological strategies that identify high-yield, biodiverse and low-emission pathways for specific agricultural production systems. Country-level policy should incentivize a climate-adapted and healthy diet-based food system towards 2050 in line with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) recommendations.
At country and regional levels, food system reforms should be informed by country and crop-specific studies that examine links between climate variables and staple food production in specific locations.
