June 20, 2001 | Contra Costa Times
A committee meets today to discuss ways warming impacts supply
By Mike Taugher, TIMES STAFF WRITER
California's next comprehensive water plan could, for the first time, consider how the state's water supply might be affected by global climate change.
An advisory committee, which meets today in Los Angeles, will take the unprecedented step of discussing how the next water management blueprint, which is due in two years, could respond to ways a changing climate might alter our water outlook.
State water officials already have noted a gradual increase in the percentage of California's water that comes from rain, as opposed to snow, over the past 100 years. That trend could continue or accelerate and increase flooding as the global climate continues to warm, according to some experts.
But the business of trying to predict specific effects of global climate change is still considered dicey.
"There is uncertainty about whether it will reduce the supply, increase the supply or result in no change," said Peter Gleick, president of the Oakland-based Pacific Institute and one of three panelists who will present information today to the committee.
"It's likely to increase demand, though," Gleick said. "Higher temperatures are likely to increase agricultural use in particular."
Gleick wrote a report sponsored by the federal government last year that predicted global warming would alter the timing and magnitude of runoff from the Sierra and other U.S. mountain ranges, and that rising sea levels could threaten drinking water wells in coastal areas.
The report also warned of increased risk of larger floods.
"Climate change is a real problem," Gleick said. "The impacts on California water resources could be severe, and now is the time to start thinking about them and preparing for them."
Although there are still dissenters, the consensus among scientists is that the global climate is changing and that the warming is due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels.
But few have tried to predict how climate change will affect geographic areas, beyond general observations such as the prospect that sea levels could rise.
Department of Water Resources spokesman Jeff Cohen said water planning committee members and department experts are likely to be cautious when responding to projections about climate change.
"Generally, I think we look at these things very carefully," he said. "A healthy skepticism is part of the scientific process, anyway."
Dave Kranz, spokesman for the California Farm Bureau, the agency that represents major water users, welcomed the group's inquiry into climate change.
"I think it's probably appropriate that the state sort of be thinking of these variables," Kranz said.
The panel discussion is part of the developing water plan, which is issued every five years. The next plan is due in 2003, and typically provides an overview of the state's water picture and projections about the adequacy of supplies.
A public draft of the 2003 report is scheduled to be completed sometime next year.37062:
