The Day After Tomorrow is a movie, not reality, but Australia can't ignore the winds of change.
The Kyoto Protocol, which opponents had all but written off as a lost cause, is back on the agenda. As a result of an odd coincidence of events, a policy change in Russia and a blockbuster movie opening in the US, Australia will face renewed pressure to ratify the United Nations protocol, as more than 120 nations have done already. One by one, the Howard Government's objections have had to be abandoned. First it was doubts about whether climate change was a scientific reality rather than a false alarm. Now, at least, the Government concedes the threat is real and even insists Australia can meet its Kyoto targets. And it is a threat in more ways than one: the environmental impact has been well canvassed, but there are also economic and strategic risks. A recently leaked Pentagon paper concluded climate change could become an issue of national security. Then the Howard Government argued that the Kyoto Protocol, seemingly unable to sign up nations with more than the required 55 per cent of global greenhouse emissions, was unlikely to come into force. It abandoned research into trading in carbon emission credits, claiming this was also unlikely to happen. On the weekend, however, something else unexpected happened. President Vladimir Putin announced Russia, with 17 per cent of greenhouse emissions, supported the Kyoto Protocol and would speed up ratification, which could bring it into force next year.
Furthermore, as the collapse of Soviet-era industries has left Russia with huge carbon credits, its decision will spur global credit trading. Some of the world's biggest companies - including US corporations - are already involved, and trading by the 25-nation European Union begins early next year. The "policy shock" of change will have economic costs, but these are short-term against the long-term and wider costs of ignoring the dangers. In Australia, financial giants such as the ANZ Bank and AMP Henderson have warned that companies need to minimise climate-change risks and take advantage of the opportunities created by emissions trading and new-generation, "clean" technology. Companies and countries face increasing risks in staying outside the emerging global climate-change regime; Russia openly admits its shift was needed to secure EU backing for entry to the World Trade Organisation. As global opinion firms further, the politics of toeing Washington's line on climate change look increasingly dubious. And here is where the movie, The Day After Tomorrow, may come into play. Despite being a scientifically nonsensical story of climatic apocalypse (climate change isn't an overnight phenomenon), the film's message about politicians ignoring scientists' warnings is so compelling that some commentators expect it to play a part in President George Bush being defeated in the November election. That remains to be seen, but the Howard Government should change its Kyoto policy before it can be stripped of its last fig leaf of respectability.The Age (Melbourne):
