Workboat | September 1, 2001 | No. 9, Vol. 58 | By Matt Gresham
U.S. grain export forecasts have improved of late, but industry analysts say the future is not bright.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture now expects U.S. corn exports to top 51 mil]ion metric tons for the October 2001 to September 2002 period, an increase of about 6 million metric tons from the current period.
"The new crop forecasts are up mainly because of less competition from China," said Gerald Rector, a grain analyst for the World Agriculture Outlook Board. "But we're expecting increased competition from Eastern Europe." Production difficulties, such as drought conditions, have dropped Chinese corn export forecasts.
Wheat prices have been high because of weak U.S. wheat forecasts.
"We have a much smaller wheat crop this year, so the prices are up," Rector said. "Without the decreased competition from Australia and Canada, we wouldn't be competitively priced."
Overall, the anticipated boost in exports is not expected to be a savior for Mississippi River trade in the coming year, according to Brent Dibner, vice president, transportation division, Mercer Management and Consulting Inc., Lexington, Mass.
Dibner said forecasted exports amount to less than 2,000 additional barge loads for the inland fleet's 12,000 covered hopper barges. The fleet divided about 84,000 trips up and down the river last year.
"So, the extra 2,000 trips are helpful, but not enough to offset the overbuilding (of hopper barges) in the late 1990s," Dibner said. "It is better than having a down year, though."
Mark Muller, a senior associate for the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, Minneapolis, Minn., warned of "rosy" projections.
"There is a downward trend in corn and wheat exports and forecasts keep coming out optimistic," he said.
And the numbers have been falling. In 1980, the U.S. exported some 2.5 billion bushels of com. In 2000, the figure was less than 1.9 billion bushels. "We haven't come close to the 1980 peak since then, and wheat exports are quite a bit worse," Muller said.
In 1982, U.S. wheat exports peaked at 1.6 billion bushels. In 2000, the U.S. exported just under 1 billion bushels.
Muller said additional exports headed to Asia, rather than Europe, are a concern for Mississippi River traffic. "The trend could mean more exports will be moving by rail to the West Coast, rather than moved down the river to the Gulf Coast," he said.Workboat:
