Omaha World-Herald / AP / October 20, 2000
Only about one of eight Iowa farmers thinks the overall farm economy will improve in the next five years - the lowest rate of optimism in 18 years, according to Iowa State University Extension.
Just 12 percent of Iowa farmers said they think the farm economy will get better, according to the annual Iowa Farm and Rural Life Poll, while 64 percent said the economy will get worse, and 24 percent expected it to stay about the same.
The previous low point was in 1994, when only 15 percent of respondents expected improvement.
"I think in general it's a shroud of uncertainty and concern that farm prices and the farm economy continue to languish behind the general economy," said Paul Lasley, an extension specialist in sociology.
A number of issues, most of them beyond the control of farm families, contribute to the pessimism, including low commodity prices, rising interest rates and fuel costs, Lasley said.
Questionnaires were sent to 4,977 Iowa farmers in February, with 61 percent responding. The figures represent the latest in a downward trend in optimism, despite peaks in 1988 and 1996, Lasley said.
Some of the respondents wrote comments on the questionnaires to highlight the grim situation.
"Individual owner-operators will become extinct very shortly without prompt and favorable government action," a Story County farmer wrote.
Michael Kiernan, spokesman for Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge, said the numbers reflect a nationwide trend that can be remedied only by a new national farm policy.
The drought and low commodity prices a year ago contribute to that, Kiernan said, including the lowest corn prices in more than a decade, the lowest soybean prices in 27 years and the lowest hog prices since the Great Depression.
"We must move beyond the annual damage control to a policy that gives farmers the tools they need to thrive, not just basically survive from disaster to disaster," Kiernan said.
John Whitaker, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, said government subsidies farmers receive in bad times are helpful, but farmers would prefer not having to use them.
"Farmers would a lot rather have money from the marketplace and not the mailbox," he said.
In addition to low commodity prices, Whitaker said farmers are dissatisfied with the Freedom to Farm Act, which he calls a failed federal policy, and the large corporate agribusinesses, which farmers perceive as controlling certain segments of the market.
Ed Wiederstein, president of the Iowa Farm Bureau and owner of a hog farm near Audubon, said there's a tremendous pace of change right now in agriculture and that influences the way farmers perceive the future.
"Some people look at it as an opportunity and some of the things that can be done to create opportunity," he said.
The Farm Bureau, he said, is trying to open up new markets for Iowa products, expand trading opportunities and create value-added enterprises.
Iowa farmers also need to look at crop diversification, Lasley said, since world markets seem to be flooded in traditional commodities.
According to the survey, only 24 percent of farmers said they think their quality of life will improve in the next five years, while 13 percent expected their neighbors' lives to improve. Those numbers are just slightly higher than during the last major farm crisis in 1986.
"It's easier to say, 'Well, my neighbors are having problems' than to admit that one's having problems," Lasley said. "I think that's just sort of human nature."
The number of respondents who believe the quality of life for their own families improved over the last five years dropped from 46 percent in 1998 to 27 percent this year. Respondents say life has improved for only 14 percent of the neighboring farm families over the same time.
The pessimism will have a significant ripple-effect on the economy, Lasley said. As farmers tighten their belts, they may be less likely to buy new machinery or nonessential items. He also said the constant stress may cause farmers to discourage their children from entering the field and may even cause some existing farmers to walk away.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the proportion of farmers age 55 and over has risen from 37 percent in 1954 to 61 percent in 1997. The average Iowa farmer is now 52.4 years old, Lasley said.
Whitaker is raising two sons, ages 17 and 15, on his farm between Hillsboro and Stockport in southeast Iowa. He said farm life is in their blood, and they both intend to become farmers. What could deter them and others, he said, is not the pessimism, but the lack of profit.
"When kids see they can't make a living, they may love it, but they'll distance themselves from it in their first job, and they'll never go back," he said.
Decline Of Farmers' Economic Optimism 1986: 40% 2000: 12%
A total of 4,977 Iowa farmers were sent questionnaires, with 61 percent responding. They were asked to rate their economic prospects for the next five years.
Source: Iowa State University Extension
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