USA Today / By Mark Memmott
When President Bush and Mexican President Vicente Fox call today for a free-trade zone throughout the Americas, they'll set the stage for what is expected to be a new explosion of protests over trade and globalization.
The two leaders, who have scheduled seven hours of talks at Fox's ranch, are expected to repeat campaign pledges to extend the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into a 34-nation Free Trade Area of the Americas, from Canada to Chile.
Their push comes at an awkward time. In the USA and other major nations, economies are slowing and job fears are rising. Around the world, anxieties over the environmental and workplace side effects of trade and globalization are building. After early success pushing NAFTA through Congress, President Clinton couldn't move his free-trade agenda much further even though the economy was strong. Bush will face an even tougher challenge.
Among the flash points that will follow today's summit, which is Bush's first foreign trip as president:
* Trade negotiators from North and South America meet April 7 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Their talks are expected to attract up to 100,000 protesters representing unions, students, environmental organizations and other activist groups. Among their charges: that NAFTA has done more harm than good to the environment and to workers' standards of living, especially in Mexico.
* Bush, Fox, Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien and some 30 other leaders meet April 20-22 in Quebec City for a "Summit of the Americas." A broad coalition of unions and activist organizations plans a counter "People's Summit."
* Bush and other leaders from the world's major industrial economies meet July 20-22 in Genoa, Italy, for their annual economic summit. Along with many of the groups that plan to protest in Buenos Aires and Quebec City, there are expected to be 50,000-100,000 people demonstrating in favor of "forgiving" the debts owed by developing nations.
* In November, trade negotiators from around the world meet in Qatar to discuss opening a new round of talks aimed at expanding the World Trade Organization. The last WTO talks, in Seattle in late 1999, became a symbol of the global battle over trade -- especially the issue of whether major nations are taking advantage of less-developed countries. Thousands of protesters disrupted the Seattle talks. Qatar authorities may keep protesters away. If so, they'll likely stage demonstrations elsewhere. On top of all that, there will be a sharp debate in Congress this year over whether to give Bush "fast-track" authority on trade negotiations. That would allow him to negotiate trade agreements that Congress would have to approve or reject without changes.
It's clear "the trade agenda is huge, the time is short and the challenge is enormous," former U.S. trade representative Carla Hills said last week.
Much of the rhetoric in coming months will be similar to what was said before NAFTA went into effect in January 1994. Ross Perot crystallized foes' fears by predicting a "great sucking sound" as U.S. corporations moved jobs to Mexico. The Clinton administration countered with projections of job gains and boosts in exports. The Labor Department says 336,313 U.S. workers have qualified for special, NAFTA-related unemployment benefits since 1994. The department also says just 27,000 or so of those workers used the benefits. Most people, Labor says, probably found jobs quickly because of the strong economy and didn't need assistance.
Critics cite the 336,313 figure as evidence of NAFTA's harm. What's more, "I haven't seen any solid numbers about jobs that have been created by NAFTA," says Karen Hansen-Kuhn, international coordinator at the Alliance for Responsible Trade, an activist group based in Washington. Pro-NAFTA forces say 336,313 people over seven years is tiny compared with the more than 20 million U.S. jobs created over that period.
How many of the more than 20 million are directly attributable to NAFTA or exports overall is unknown. The President's Council of Economic Advisers has estimated that 450,000 jobs that can be directly tied to total export growth were created in 1993-95. But the council has also said that in subsequent years, as unemployment fell to 40-year lows and it became harder for companies to find new workers, fewer jobs were likely created just to fill the demand for exports. Instead, it appears that businesses met that demand by boosting productivity. Exports couldn't have accounted for all the job growth anyway. They equal 13% of U.S. economic output, up from about 10% in 1994 but still a modest share of the economy.
Also debated: why the USA has gone from a $1.3 billion trade surplus with Mexico in 1994 to a deficit that likely topped $24 billion last year. Critics say that's further proof NAFTA hasn't been good for U.S. workers. Supporters say the U.S. economy was so strong in the second half of the 1990s that it pulled in imports from everywhere, not just Mexico, which is now the USA's second-largest trading partner, behind Canada.
Although many of the debates over trade will be familiar, things have changed in other ways. The Seattle protests showed the power of the Web. Groups that led those demonstrations used the Web to coordinate their rallies. They've expanded since then. The home page of Common Frontiers (www.web.net/comfront), the coalition behind the People's Summit in Quebec, links to other groups.
In addition, there's now growing concern in many parts of the world about the danger of a global recession.
There is, former U.S. trade representative Mickey Kantor said last week, "a deep cynicism" about trade that will grow if the global economy weakens.:
