New York Times / By FRANK BRUNI
MISSION VIEJO, Calif., May 4 -- Three weeks before a closely watched vote in Congress on trade relations with China, Gov. George W. Bush and his advisers are making sure to remind Capitol Hill Republicans of Mr. Bush's support for the bill and have not ruled out his calling undecided House Republicans.
Aides said Mr. Bush of Texas is planning to give a speech the week before the House vote, which is expected between May 22 and Memorial Day, to explain anew why he feels so strongly about facilitating trade between the United States and China.
Those remarks will probably be delivered in Seattle or some other city on the West Coast, a region that pins many economic hopes on commerce with Asian nations.
"I'll speak out about it," Mr. Bush, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, said aboard his campaign plane Wednesday afternoon, referring to the vote.
Asked if he would phone individual Republicans who were undecided, Mr. Bush first said he doubted it, then added, "I shouldn't say categorically no."
Several aides to Mr. Bush said the possibility of such calls had been discussed by Republican officials on Capitol Hill and some of the governor's advisers in Austin, Tex., but that nothing had been decided.
Congress is being asked to establish permanent normalized trade relations with China -- in effect, sacrifice its annual review of China's trading rights -- and to treat Beijing as it does most other members of the World Trade Organization.
But one aide to Mr. Bush said the governor was wary of doing anything, on any issue, that resembled outright lobbying, because such actions might appear inappropriate.
"Unless and until you are elected, it is best to have a healthy respect for the office of the presidency and the legislative branch," the aide said.
About two-thirds of House Republicans support the measure and about one-third oppose it, Congressional Republicans say, but between 20 and 30 House Republicans are undecided.
It could work to Mr. Bush's advantage to sway them, because it would demonstrate that his calls for more open trade with China have not fallen on deaf ears in his own party. Moreover, it would show he can exert leadership over Republicans and promote cohesiveness among them.
But Mr. Bush has almost equal reason not to push too hard. Should the measure fail, its loss would owe more to Democratic opposition than Republican and would give Mr. Bush another issue with which to beat Vice President Al Gore, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, who also supports it.
Mr. Bush could argue that the Clinton administration -- and by extension Mr. Gore -- could not win enough Congressional cooperation to pass any meaningful legislation, political analysts said.
Indeed, discussing the vote aboard his campaign jet, Mr. Bush tried to shift the topic from his plans to those of Mr. Gore. Referring to telephoning members of Congress, Mr. Bush said: "The interesting question is, will Vice President Gore? Because it's his administration that's trying to get the bill through."
Several House Republican aides said that Mr. Bush would probably not be asked to approach individual Republicans, because House Republicans already knew where the governor stood on the issue.
For months along the campaign trail, Mr. Bush has declared his support for permanent normalized trade relations with China.
He has said that American farms and businesses would benefit from freer access to China's markets, even as the causes of human rights and democracy in China would be served by more exposure to American products and ideas.
Last week, Condoleezza Rice, Mr. Bush's chief foreign policy adviser, discussed the issue with House and Senate Republicans. But Ms. Rice said today she did not meet specifically with undecided Republicans or argue Mr. Bush's position. "I was more asking them questions about where it all stood," she said. "They have no questions about where he stands. He's made it very clear."
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