By Matthew Vita and William Booth / Washington Post Staff Writers
As House Republican leaders moved toward setting a May vote on granting China permanent normal trade privileges, President Clinton yesterday told a California audience that the trade deal would provide a huge boost to the American economy and give up "zip, zilch, nada, zero" to the Chinese in return.
China's trade status is shaping up to be one of the most contentious issues before Congress this year. China has agreed to open up many of its markets in return for entry into the World Trade Organization, but the United States would benefit from those changes only if Congress agrees to permanently waive the annual review it now makes of China's trade status.
House Democrats and senior Clinton administration officials are concerned that delaying the vote until summer could sink the legislation. But in the strongest public signal yet from the House GOP leadership that it would agree to schedule an early vote before the divisive issue gets bogged down in election-year politics, Majority Leader Richard K. Armey (R-Tex.) told reporters yesterday, "I want it done as quickly as possible, by the end of May at the very latest."
A fixed date for the vote will touch off a frenetic endgame in a battle that is pitting organized labor, environmental and conservative groups opposed to granting China normal trading rights against a powerful coalition of business and agriculture organizations that are eager to gain access to China's vast markets.
In an address to high-technology executives in San Jose, Clinton said passage of the trade deal is vital for the American economy to continue its record growth. But since the dot-com crowd overwhelmingly supports China trade, Clinton's real audience was Congress.
Senior White House officials say the president intends to make passage of the legislation one of his highest priorities in his last year in office. Clinton has been meeting personally with representatives, and Commerce Secretary William Daley and Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman plan to take delegations of wavering House members to China during the two-week congressional recess that begins later this month.
To bolster support, the White House announced yesterday that 40 governors had signed a letter to Congress urging support of permanent normal trading status for China. In another show of support, a powerful coalition of high-technology associations and CEOs signed another letter to Congress pushing approval of the China legislation.
Although Clinton acknowledged that the trade deal has "become a lightning rod for everybody's dissatisfaction with everything," he predicted the measure would open up the Chinese market for American products such as automobiles, agriculture, telecommunications and computers, and open up Chinese society through the spread of the "cell phone and cable modem."
"In the entire history of trade agreements, I don't think there's ever been one weighted [more] in our favor," Clinton said. "This vote by Congress is on an agreement that lowers no American trade barriers, lowers no American tariffs, grants no greater access to China to any part of the American economy--nothing, zip, zilch, nada, zero."
Rep. Robert T. Matsui (D-Calif.), who is leading the administration's fight in the House, said a May vote would be "really good news for us," though he expressed concern that organized labor's campaign to defeat the trade bill, coupled with the November election in which control of the House is at stake, will make passage difficult. "This is not going to be an easy vote," Matsui said.
Proponents say they expect between 75 and 80 House Democrats to vote for the measure, and warn that GOP expectations of 90 or 100 Democrats in the "yes" camp are unrealistic.
Although 70 to 80 Democrats would be far fewer than the 110 who voted in favor of an annual extension of Chinese trade privileges last year, they would be enough to achieve the 218 votes needed for approval if Republican support remains solid.
"I am very confident about our prospects for victory," said Rep. David Dreier (R-Calif.), a leading China trade supporter. "We'll have an overwhelming majority of the Republican Party voting for this."
To address the concerns of some lawmakers, the administration is considering proposals aimed at addressing such issues as China's human rights record, labor and environmental standards, and trading practices. They include creation of a commission composed of nine senators, nine House members and five executive branch officials to monitor Chinese behavior. They also would create a position within the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to focus on labor issues, and would seek an annual review by the WTO of China's compliance with its trade commitments.
"There's increased interest all around in seeing whether we can achieve both the [trade] advantages in what we've negotiated and the need for keeping pressure on China," said Rep. Sander M. Levin (D-Mich.), the author of the proposals.
Passage is virtually assured in the largely pro-trade Senate, though it is unclear whether the full Senate would vote before the House.
Booth reported from San Jose.
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