By Nathaniel Harrison
WASHINGTON, March 10 (AFP) - Clinton administration officials acknowledge they face an uphill struggle to win congressional backing for expanded trade with China despite an intense lobbying campaign by the White House.
The debate intensified this week when President Bill Clinton formally presented legislation authorizing permanent Normal Trade Relations (NTR) and urged prompt action by lawmakers.
But Commerce Secretary William Daley candidly acknowledged Thursday that "we probably don't have the votes" at present and reiterated his concern that opponents of the measure have all the intensity on their side, treating the issue as a "jihad," or holy war.
House Speaker Dennis Hastert in an interview appearing in the Wall Street Journal Friday estimated that to stand a chance of approval in the Republican-controlled, 435-seat House of Representatives the measure needs 100 Democratic votes -- which it currently lacks.
Since passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993, liberalizing commerce among the United States, Canada and Mexico, Clinton has suffered a string of painful trade setbacks.
Congress has steadfastly refused to expand presidential authority to negotiate trade deals and has yet to approve his initiatives to expand commercial relations with Africa and the Caribbean.
In addition, the administration's dreams of a new round of multilateral trade talks this year were dashed last December when a World Trade Organization ministerial meeting to set an agenda sparked massive street protests and ended in abject failure.
Alluding to such mishaps in remarks to insurance executives this week, Daley asked: "What kind of message would we be sending to the rest of the world if we fail to normalize our trade relations with China?"
"I think it would be a very negative message, that America no longer wants to lead, that we fear a country that has an economy just one-tenth the size of ours."
The administration has warned over and over again that if Congress fails to approve permanent NTR for China, Beijing will simply go ahead and offer trade concessions to Washington's competitors, notably in the European Union.
But that argument has been challenged by analysts at Public Citizen, a think tank founded by consumer activist Ralph Nader, and by labor leaders who maintain that US-Chinese reciprocal trade privileges are covered under a 1979 bilateral treaty.
"Rejection of permanent normal trade relations with China will not lead either to disengagement between the United States and China in general, nor to interference with trade," according to Ann Hoffman, legislative director of the Union of Needletrades, Industrial and Textile Employees.
"China and the United States will retain diplomatic, social, cultural and educational ties. Trade will continue on the basis of their existing bilaterals."
China signed an agreement with the United States last November in exchange for US support for its long-sought entry into the World Trade Organization.
But Beijing made clear the deal was contingent on Congressional approval of the measure that would grant China the same opportunities to do business in the United States currently enjoyed by all but a handful of countries.
At present China's trade status undergoes annual congressional review. Chinese authorities resent the procedure and US businessmen say it hobbles their ability to compete with exporters from the European Union and elsewhere.
Organized labor, human rights activists and many in Congress argue that doing away the annual scrutiny will eliminate whatever pressure the United States now has to promote democracy in China.:
