By CHARLES HUTZLER Associated Press Writer
BEIJING (AP) - China raises new threats to attack Taiwan. Taiwanese leaders warn intimidation will only worsen relations. The United States, threatening grave consequences if China attacks, moves an aircraft carrier off Japan.
The dynamics on display in East Asia's longest-running civil war seem a recipe for confrontation. With China and Taiwan caught in emotional domestic politics and the United States in between, the Taiwan Strait has entered a volatile period that will last months beyond Taiwan's March 18 presidential election.
While there are no signs so far that China is mobilizing for war, Beijing has other ways to put pressure on Taiwan - and, given the stakes and heated politics, the potential for disastrous miscalculations is high.
"A crisis cannot be ruled out," said Yan Xuetong, a scholar at a think-tank linked to China's spy agency who has researched the chances for war with the United States. "If there is a military conflict with Taiwan, then the United States must be involved."
For China, unification with Taiwan is a cherished national goal. The country's politically influential military maintains a tough line on the island, and nationalistic displays are likely during the 10-day annual session of China's national legislature, which opens Sunday. In such a climate, President Jiang Zemin cannot afford to look weak.
China raised fears of an imminent conflict last month by putting Taiwanese presidential candidates on notice that the 51-year separation between the mainland and the island cannot go on. In addition to any attempt by Taiwan to declare independence, China said foot-dragging on unification could bring war.
The threats seemed to set the stage for a repeat of the tense standoff during Taiwan's 1996 presidential election, when U.S. and Chinese militaries made dangerous shows of force near the island.
This time, Taiwan's government rebuffed Beijing, and none of the three leading presidential candidates bowed to Beijing's terms on unification.
In the United States, which acknowledges China's claim to Taiwan but is bound by law to aid the island's defense, a Pentagon official warned of "incalculable consequences." Soon word spread that the USS Kitty Hawk had left its base in Japan, although the Pentagon later said the vessel was checking recent repairs and was not near Taiwan.
Beyond the rhetoric, China has too many compelling reasons not to wage war short of outright moves by Taiwan toward formal independence, said Yan and other scholars connected to the defense establishment.
A war, they say, would likely turn China into a pariah nation - derailing the economic modernization that remains the leadership's foremost goal - and make Beijing and Washington long-term enemies. It could also lead to the rearming of rival Japan.
The People's Liberation Army is years away from being strong enough to retake Taiwan, and a loss would mean the end for President Jiang, if not the Communist Party, scholars say. Even in victory, "a Taiwan beaten into submission won't be much of a reunification," said Xin Bo, an international affairs expert at the party's top training academy.
In light of those risks, China's threats last month, made in a government policy paper, read as a bottom-line warning to Taiwan and the United States.
"The Chinese government is saying, 'Don't put me in a position where there's no other choice but to attack,'" said Gao Heng, a security specialist well-known for his hawkish views on U.S. intentions.
China has not been all threats. Significantly, Beijing has offered Taiwan talks as equals and has not ruled out negotiations on the practical matters Taipei seeks, such as fishing disputes, once the island agrees it is part of "one China."
Short of war, China has a range of options. It could stage war games, like it did in 1996, or mount a show of force, taking any of several tiny South China Sea islands Taiwan holds but withdrew its navy from late last year.
More drastically, the military could impose a naval blockade - a measure Gao believes would cripple the island, which lacks natural resources and is dependent on trade.
Washington has, in Beijing's view, moved to try to curb China's behavior, delaying a congressional vote on granting China permanent normal trading rights, key to Beijing's ambitions to join the World Trade Organization.
President Clinton, who has made China's WTO entry a foreign-policy priority, is mulling sales of high-tech weaponry to Taiwan, something favored by congressional conservatives whose support he needs.
Running through Beijing's military and security think tanks is the belief that the United States is a decaying, money-oriented society averse to risking casualties in a conflict with China.
"It will be a major war between two large countries. Will they risk nuclear war and then nuclear winter?" said Gao, the strategist. "If one American dies, it's big deal. If 10,000 Chinese die, so what?":
