Global warming is doing more than just dissolving Arctic ice fields into chilly waters. The prospect of new navigational trade routes emerging as ice floes melt away is heating up discussions of international trade between Russia and Canada.
It's just a matter of time before the economic benefits frozen deep within the Northwest Passage begin to flow, creating a deluge of trading opportunities for both nations, says Georgiy Mamedov, Russia's new ambassador to Canada.
That is, if both countries can work towards building a proposed maritime link and creating the infrastructure needed for such a venture at two of its key seaports: one in Russia's extreme northwest state, Murmansk, and one nestled on the Hudson Bay in Churchill, Man.
The link to Canada, dubbed the Arctic bridge, is one of a vast network of trade channels across land and water that Russia is hoping to build in an effort to solidify itself as a geostrategic bridge between Europe, Asia and North America. In other words, it's building a web of roads, railroads, and waterways that would link cities such as Paris and Berlin to Tokyo and Beijing with central Europe acting as the main hub.
"We've already got the wheels in motion, with the sole exception of the Arctic bridge, that's why I'm so interested in developing concrete plans with our counterparts here because Canada is a key partner," said Mr. Mamedov, who hopes to get the project up and running by the end of his three-year term.
While interest exists in Canada, there seems to be little wind in the sails, former foreign affairs minister Lloyd Axworthy, a longtime champion of the idea, told the Citizen.
"You're dealing with a lot of inertia in this system and it would need a real kickstart," he said, asking Prime Minister Paul Martin to heed the calls of westerners who want the plan to move full steam ahead.
Even the Russians are hoping the topic lands on Mr. Martin's agenda at next month's G8 summit in the U.S. But if not, it will be an unavoidable issue when Russia holds the G8 summit in 2006.
But some warn that while the plan promises a flood of economic opportunities to both countries there are a host of environmental concerns, security risks and debate over who owns the Northwest Passageway.
"There's hardly been any industrial activity in the Arctic (so) it hasn't cost us anything," said Chris Burn, a geography professor at Carleton University. "But if the Arctic is to become a trade route, there's all sorts of responsibilities we'd have to assume."
Because Canada claims ownership of the Arctic waters -- an issue that's contested by the U.S. -- the Canadian navy would likely have to be stationed there for security purposes, the Canadian coastguard would be responsible for search and rescue capabilities, and the Department of Fisheries would be on the hook to provide detailed bathymetric data and hydrographic charts on the depth of the waterway and any underwater obstacles.
And, there are very real environmental dangers when travelling through unruly weather conditions in an area that hasn't been properly charted, simply because it's never had to be.
Most worrisome, is an absolute worst-case scenario, said Mr. Burn, who also holds a northern research chair with the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. It would involve a shipwrecked oil tanker spilling its cargo just days before the end of the season when waters begin to freeze, making cleanup extremely difficult.
Even if, as scientists predict, it takes between 10 and 25 years for the waterway to melt enough to begin allowing trade ships to pass, the Canadian government should start paying closer attention to such a plan, said Mr. Burn. After all, it's not only the Russians who are anticipating the opening of such a route, but also many circumpolar nations, and even the Europeans, who see it as a more direct route to Asia. And, the Americans have shown interest in the area since the Cold War.
Although talk of an Arctic Bridge has recently surfaced, with Mr. Mamedov making it a priority of his, the idea is not new. It was first raised in 1992 when former Russian president Boris Yeltsin signed an agreement with then prime minister Brian Mulroney to co-operate on issues involving the North.
Feasibility studies were in the works then, but quickly abandoned when tanks rolled into the streets of Moscow in 1993, thrusting the country onto the brink of a civil war and threatening a relapse into an old Soviet-type dictatorship.
The time has finally come to make the bridge a reality, said Mr. Mamedov, pointing to Russia's newfound political stability. Unlike a decade ago, Russia now has the will to match its interest.
Rich Russian oil companies looking to tap into promising new markets in North America are willing to foot much of the $5 billion needed to upgrade the port of Murmansk so that it's capable of moving and loading oil.
The route between Murmansk and Churchill would be one of the quickest ways of transporting liquid oil and gas into central Canada and downward into the United States. And because Canada has already got the infrastructure needed to transport oil to its southern neighbour, but lacks the reserves to meet U.S. demands, oil-rich Russia could provide it.
The Arctic bridge wouldn't just benefit the Russians, it's a win-win situation for both countries, he said.
Not only would Canada make money on transit fees from goods transported across its territory, but with travel time cut almost in half, to about a week, Russia would likely buy more Canadian goods, which are typically cheaper than European products until shipping costs are added.
Canadian products would be much more competitive in the huge and unsaturated market of Russia's north, where communities struggle for adequate medical necessities and agricultural goods, said Mr. Mamedov.
"If we can create a dependable link with Canada we'd resolve this perennial problem ... Conditions there for agricultural purposes are very rough -- most people specialize in mining or transportation ... Churchill would be like a link between the Canadian market and a huge Russian market and by extension huge markets in Europe and Asia."
Mr. Mamedov doesn't need to convince Manitoba Premier Gary Doer of the vast potential waiting. Mr. Doer signed a letter of intent with the state of Murmansk to develop a marine link with Churchill while on a trade mission to Moscow in February 2002.
Nor does he need to drum up support from the Gateway Development Corp., a marketing body aimed at diversifying traffic in the Port of Churchill that includes representatives from the provincial and federal governments and members of OmniTRAX, the U.S.-based company that owns the port and the rail line that runs from Churchill down to The Pas, Man.
Trade along the Arctic bridge would "add substantial economic benefit to the NAFTA countries," said Mr. Axworthy, who is chairman of the corporation. He said "it would open new economic connections and channels," including links to Europe.
Mr. Axworthy's support of the port extends beyond his days as a foreign affairs minister when he delivered a speech entitled "From Murmansk to Monterey." He's worked on the Churchill file since his days as a provincial legislator in the 1970s.
The Department of Foreign Affairs is willing to be help, but thinks the push must come from the primary stakeholders, such as OmniTRAX, grain companies and oil companies.
Unlike their Russian counterparts, Canadians haven't figured out how much it would cost to upgrade the sleepy port, which is only open for five months of the year to ship mostly grain from the Prairies to foreign markets. But Mr. Axworthy said they're working on those figures.
It may not be cheap, but as the ice-free season in the Hudson Bay grows, some suggest it could prove more costly to do nothing.
"There's no doubt that if we don't do some serious planning, the climate and the environment will continue to work its magic anyway," said Mr. Axworthy. "We'll end up with this major new routing of potential navigation and transportation, but without any way to make sure it's done in a co-operative way according to rules, and an effective blueprint in place to make full use of it."The Ottawa Citizen:
