By Bill Savadove
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - U.S. Ambassador Joseph Prueher said on Wednesday he was hopeful the U.S. Congress would approve permanent normal trade relations for China but said the vote would be close.
"I am optimistic it will get a good vote," Prueher told a Credit Lyonnais Securities forum in Shanghai. "The vote will be close. I think people are very optimistic but not confident."
Under a landmark bilateral trade pact struck last November that paves the way for China to join the World Trade Organization, Beijing agreed to open a wide range of markets from agriculture to telecommunications and finance.
In exchange, the White House says, Congress must grant China permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) -- a status it now enjoys only after an annual congressional review. The U.S. House of Representatives, sharply divided over the issue, is expected to vote on the trade status in the week of May 22.
Major U.S. labor unions and their allies in Congress, mostly Democrats, oppose the China trade legislation, citing concerns over possible job losses and human rights issues.
But Prueher called the agreement on China's entry to the WTO a "good deal" that would help address the massive trade deficit the United States has with China.
China also would be pressured to enforce the WTO agreement by other WTO members as well as its own need to sustain future economic development, he said.
Prueher noted a number of prickly issues the U.S. and China must work to resolve from Taiwan and Asian security to human rights.
Meeting On Taiwan
He urged dialogue between China and Taiwan to resolve tensions. The U.S. envoy said he met with Zhang Wannian, vice-chairman of China's powerful Central Military Commission, on Tuesday to discuss Taiwan.
"We can get through a good conversation because we trust each other, and once we get through that part of it we can agree that there is some common ground on which solutions can occur," Prueher said.
John Holden, chairman of the independent National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, also expressed optimism about the congressional trade vote, but warned any trouble in the Taiwan Strait could scuttle the vote.
"A flare-up in tension in the Taiwan Strait or other incidents that create ill will toward China could reverse the current positive momentum and result in failure."
But he added: "I believe that wise heads will prevail in Beijing, Taipei and Washington and that we will avoid a 'no-win' confrontation in the Taiwan Strait."
Prueher is headed to Washington later on Wednesday, where the lobbying effort on China's permanent trade status is in full swing.
On Tuesday, former U.S. presidents Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford, presidential candidate Al Gore and other bipartisan supporters joined President Clinton in urging Congress to approve permanent trading privileges for China.
A Reuters poll of House votes on Tuesday showed supporters to be 57 votes short of the 218 needed to pass the 435-member House, with 97 lawmakers undecided. The Senate is expected to approve the legislation in June.
U.S lawmakers have announced a bipartisan side deal on legislation to set up a watchdog commission to monitor human rights in China. The White House sees the monitoring deal as a way to reach out to House Democrats who want a forum to air concerns about China.
But China's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue denounced on Tuesday the U.S. proposal for a human rights commission as interference in its affairs and repeated China's demand that the United States grant it PNTR status.:
