The Guardian & The Observer / By Claire Wallerstein in Manila / Saturday May 1, 1999
Asia's developing countries must invest heavily in genetic engineering or risk being unable to feed their growing populations in the next century, scientists have warned.
While the debate over genetically modified foods rages in the west, a report commissioned by the Asian Development Bank says the world's poorest countries could face increasing poverty and malnutrition - possibly leading to civil unrest - if they do not embrace the new technology.
As the population of the rice-eating world continues to spiral, production of the crop will have to increase by 70% by 2025. Demands on land and water will get heavier, while maintaining soil fertility and fighting further erosion will be a battle. Possible climate changes could also affect food production.
Despite massive migration to the cities, the number of people living in the Asian countryside today stands at 2bn - more than at any other time in history. This rural population, many of its people impoverished, is projected to grow by 300m by 2020.
In South Asia alone, 500m rural people already live on less than 60p a day, while 80m children under the age of four are malnourished.
One of the report's authors, Peter Hazell of the International Food Policy Research Institute, said, "We expect to see increasing discontent about the growing inequalities in life, and in some cases a growing danger of social conflict and violence over the use of the remaining resources, especially in South Asia."
He said aid agencies and national governments were deluding themselves if they thought the food problem had been solved and that agriculture was "a sunset industry."
He expressed alarm that investment in rural areas was being slashed - especially after the Asian currency crisis of last year, and agricultural output was slowing down.
Presenting the report, Rural Asia: Beyond the Green Revolution, Dr Hazell said, "If successfully adopted, biotechnology could make an extremely important addition to agricultural production. Indeed it could be the only way of ensuring sufficient food for the next century.
Norman Borlaug, a Nobel laureate - one of the architects of the 60s "green revolution" which saw the introduction of more productive seed strains boosted by fertilisers in the third world - said environmental groups working in opposition to the use of chemicals and biotechnology were misguided.
"The world's population is 6bn, and there are already 800m of us facing severe hunger," he said. "If you used the farming techniques being employed in the 1930s, you wouldn't be able to feed more than 2bn people.
"You would have to use at least double the amount of land already being used for agriculture - land which, thanks to technology, is still preserved today for forestry, wildlife and flood control."
He said wheat itself was a product of natural genetic engineering - containing seven additional chromosomes from a different species with which it had cross-bred before the advent of agriculture.
"If we regularly eat wheat, which contains seven whole alien chromosomes, how much danger can there be from a single gene?" he asked.
The International Rice Research Institute, based south of Manila, is at the forefront of efforts to develop a strain of highly productive and pest-resistant "super rice," using genetic material from some of the world's 80,000 rice species. Scientists say this could increase yields from two tonnes to six tonnes an acre.
But the institute, set up by the Rockefeller and Henry Ford foundations, has itself been affected by funding cuts.
Fernando Bernardo, deputy director for international services, said, "The only way we will feed a growing population with rapidly decreasing resources is through research. This is a race against time."
Dr Hazell said, "The green revolution has run its course, and Asia must do much better. We require very significant changes in attitudes and policy reforms."
