South China Morning Post
Lobbying ahead of next week's vote on permanent Normal Trade Relations has hit fever pitch as all the players fight for their interests in what the Clinton administration has described as an "extraordinarily important issue" for the US economy and national security.
President Bill Clinton yesterday requested air time from television networks to speak to the nation on Sunday night as Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan threw his support behind the White House. "I believe extending [normal trade status] to China and full participation by China in the WTO is in the interests of the United States," Mr Greenspan said, appearing with Mr Clinton at the White House.
Despite intense lobbying by permanent NTR supporters, a new human rights commission and tougher arms proliferation laws could yet complicate the smooth passage of the bill. The passage of the permanent NTR bill through two key congressional committees on Wednesday has raised hopes of a successful vote next week but has not seen the end of complex back-room manoeuvring in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
"Wednesday was but one victory ... we still have a long, long way to go and there is now going to be a lot of fine-tuning required to make sure things are smooth," a congressional aide said.
The bill passed through the Senate Finance Committee and the Ways and Means Committee of the House of Representatives without side laws for a human rights commission attached. Final decisions on how these laws - important to securing support from fence-sitters - will be introduced have yet to be made.
"We've still got a lot of work to do in the Senate. There can be no guarantees yet ... and we do want a clean bill," Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott said.
While both the Senate and the House vote differently, they still must approve exactly the same law at the end of the day. If the two bills are different, they then must meet and thrash out a final product and vote again. "There is all sorts of room for delays here unless there is firm agreement on how to handle these side laws," one diplomat said.
While the Senate Finance Committee passed a clean bill, its House Ways and Means counter-part included provisions for action to ensure the US can protect itself from surges in mainland exports.
The provisions proved important in winning support from four wavering Democrats for a better than expected 34-4 endorsement from the committee.
Pro-trade lobbyists, including the Hong Kong Government, feared side laws could politicise the delicate, independent business of trade disputes and put exporters at risk. But the laws were weaker than expected, largely reflecting anti-surge provisions in the recent Sino-US trade pact. Rather than allow congressmen to demand trade penalties, the provisions still recognise presidential discretion and the role of the independent International Trade Commission.
New proposals by Fred Thompson, a Republican senator from Tennessee, providing for tougher sanctions against the mainland for weapons' sales to rogue states, constitute another possible complication.
The pro-trade business lobby is spending more than US$12 million (HK$93 million) pushing its case, while anti-deal union groups are using extensive grass-roots groups to pressure fence-sitters in their home districts.
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