New York Times / AP / Nov. 6 1999
WASHINGTON -- A study from the International Food Policy Research Institute was cited as saying that the world's farmers will have to increase grain production by 40 percent to meet global needs in 2020.
The world's population is projected to grow by 73 million people a year -- roughly the Philippines' current population -- and demand for meat in developing countries should jump, too. That means stronger prices for the extra corn and other grains needed for livestock feed, according to the analysis.
Per Pinstrup-Anderson, director general of the Washington-based think tank was quoted as saying "If you're losing your farm now it doesn't do you any good ... but for someone who wants to go into farming this year or next the prospects look very, very good."
The story says that the institute is funded by the United Nations, the World Bank and various governments, including the United States. It analyzes world food needs and makes recommendations to policy-makers.
The report cites what it calls a "livestock revolution" in East Asia and other parts of the developing world. Demand for meat in developing countries has been growing three times faster than in industrialized nations and should double between 1995 and 2020, the analysts said. In the developed world, meat demand is expected to increase by 25 percent.
Other findings in the report: Unless rain forests and other environmental sensitive areas are turned into farmland, most of the world's arable land already is under cultivation. That means most of the increased grain production will have to come from improvements in crop yields. While millions of people will remain poor, Third World income is expected to grow by 4.32 percent a year, double that of the developed world. The greatest increase is expected in China and East Asia. China alone will account for a fourth of the global increase in demand for grain and 41 percent of the increased demand for meat. Even with improvements in crops and farming methods, production in developing countries will not keep pace with demand. U.S. grain exports are projected to rise by 34 percent between 1995 and 2020. Eastern Europe and the nations of the former Soviet Union also are likely to become major exporters, but the U.S. farmers probably will have to provide 60 percent of the developing world's needs by 2020.
The story says that biotechnology could help meet Third World food needs if it were used to make crops more nourishing by adding vitamins and minerals to grains, for example, and to render plants resistant to drought or pests.
Neil Hamilton, a specialist in agricultural law at Drake University and an advocate for small-scale farmers was quoted as saying, "A lot of the biotechnology that has come down the pike ... as not designed to benefit the unfed of the world.":
