Europe's chief negotiator on the Kyoto climate-change agreement has warned that Australia's opposition will become untenable when Russia signs, possibly before the end of the year, and has called on Australians to demand stronger political leadership on the issue.
The European Union's environment commissioner, Margot Wallstrom, says she understands that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the drawing up of the instruments for Russia to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, a move that will achieve the critical mass required for it to come into effect.
She says that Australia and the United States the last opponents of the Kyoto agreement will be wise to prepare for the likelihood that the rest of the world will go-ahead with implementing the provisions of the treaty immediately it is signed by Russia.
"I expect they will still continue to hold out. There is a lot of prestige and there are a lot of vested interests involved," Wallstrom says in an interview with The Australian Financial Review.
"But I think in the end, so many countries will adopt Kyoto the pressure will be too strong for the United States and Australia. The pressure will come from their business communities.
"Already we have many US companies coming to us because we are going ahead with emissions trading from early next year. They want to trade with us. I think that pressure will increase greatly after Russia signs. If leadership does not come from politicians, it will come up from underneath."
Wallstrom says she is sure that Australians, with their recent experience of severe summer bushfires and extreme weather conditions that get worse each year, understand something is wrong with the climate and urgent action is needed.
"There is still a debate in Australia. But if citizens are asked about what they believe the priorities for governments should be, climate change is among the top issues. So people are concerned and they do want leadership."
She contrasts the Australian government's stand with that of Canada, saying that because of its proximity to the US it may have been expected that Canada "would follow or be forced to follow" the US. Instead, Canada has adopted a very independent position.
"Canada established their own policy. That was much more impressive leadership."
But she says it seems that issues other than just the climate change issue were involved in the Australian government's decision to join the US in refusing to sign up to Kyoto. Broader issues of the alliance relationship influenced Australia's decision.
"The contacts with and the history it has with the United States maybe puts Australia closer to the US," she says.
"I think it is the same thing that also Russia will have to decide in the end where do they feel most politically at home."
Wallstrom was a member of a recent EU delegation that negotiated directly with Putin in Moscow on the Kyoto issue at the same time as the EU was negotiating a deal to support Russia's entry into the World Trade Organisation.
She says Putin has shown he has a highly detailed knowledge of the Kyoto proposals, indicating that he is taking a very close personal role in Russia's deliberations about whether to ratify the protocol.
Wallstrom says she is very hopeful that Russia will announce its decision to sign before the meeting of Kyoto-committed countries in Buenos Aires in December, the so-called COP 10 meeting.
Referring to the Howard government's recently released energy policy, Wallstrom says she applauds the commitment to finding technological ways to combat greenhouse-gas emissions, including carbon dioxide sequestration (extracting CO2 before it is released into the atmosphere and pumping it underground).
"But it is not enough," she says.
The only possible way to develop an international commitment to combating climate change is through multilateral action, and the only prospect of effective multilateral action is through the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, she says.
Wallstrom's five-year term as Europe's Environment Commissioner ends in October.
She has indicated that she would like to be reappointed for another five years.Australian Financial Review:
