The New York Times / By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL with JOSEPH KAHN
BEIJING, May 20 -- The Clinton administration has argued that Congress should vote for normal trade relations with China because it is in the United States' national security interest, strengthening reformist forces in China. A huge number of influential Chinese agree.
These Chinese say their country is at a tipping point in its history: A yes vote on normal trade can propel it forward to greater liberalization and engagement with the West. A no vote from Congress will be seen as a slap in the face, throwing China back into conservatism and anti-American hatred.
"What's important is not how this vote will affect this or that industry," said Zhou Daichun, a commercial lawyer in Beijing. "What's important is that this is an opportunity to push for reform and reorganization in China and without that impetus, many reforms are impossible."
"If China is refused, it will give encouragement to conservatives here," he said. "And if you think about the reaction to the embassy bombing last year -- and how much the bombing affected Zhu Rongji -- you can imagine how serious that could be," he added, referring to the American bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, last year, which reduced the influence of China's Western-leaning prime minister and sparked angry anti-American protests.
For millions of Chinese, the Congressional vote -- which, if positive, would ensure China's full participation in the World Trade Organization -- has taken on a transcendent aura beyond the boundaries of trade or politics.
A broad array of educated Chinese -- top government officials, publishers, bankers, artists, lawyers and pro-democracy advocates -- have come together in extraordinary agreement on the issue, investing their hope for progress in China in a contentious trade vote occurring 10,000 miles away.
Trade experts say that the implementation of agreements in China is likely to be slow and difficult. But Chinese government leaders and economists hope the normalization of trade with America will help close inefficient state enterprises. Authors and artists here are convinced it will reduce censorship. Lawyers suggest it will force China's mercurial judges to follow the law.
"For China, joining W.T.O is not just about trade concessions," said Xu Xiaonian, a general manager at China International Capital Corporation. "There is much, much more at stake."
The people who have the most at stake are some of China's top leaders, -- President Jiang Zemin and Prime Minister Zhu, the country's chief proponent of the trade deal. Both have long campaigned for closer economic ties with the United States, a position that became much more controversial in China after last year's embassy bombing, which the United States has said was accidental.
These leaders want to open the Chinese market through the World Trade Organization, in part to attract new investment. But also, they are counting on international trading rules and the pressure from increased foreign competition to force forward the government's stalled economic reform plans -- from closing bankrupt factories to breaking up state monopolies and phasing out state housing.
While Mr. Zhu believes that such reforms are essential, they have proved politically difficult and the government is well behind schedule. Local industries have resisted downsizing and giving up state perks. Huge state businesses, like China Telecom, have refused to cede an ounce of power.
Mr. Jiang and Mr. Zhu are personally vulnerable, too, since they have pushed the trade pact despite the misgivings of internal opponents, who remain suspicious of the United States or who worry that competition will cause destabilizing unemployment in China's state industries. And if Congress snubs China, it will seriously weaken both their policies and their standing, injecting new tension into Chinese-American relations.
"If the vote doesn't pass, that will be a disaster for Jiang and Zhu since they are the main architects of the current foreign and economic policies, and these both depend on getting P.N.T.R.," or permanent normal trade relations, said a senior researcher at a government policy institute here.
"If they fail, they will have a tough task persuading ministries, provincial leaders and the military to go along with their reforms -- especially the military, who believe that China has been too soft on the U.S. and on Taiwan."
Senior American officials say that a no vote would have long-term repercussions, forcing a quick end to Mr. Zhu's career, and making it harder for Mr. Jiang to anoint a like-minded successor when he steps down as head of the party in 2002.
But in Beijing, when people sit at Starbucks discussing the American trade bill, it is not the fate of the party -- or even business -- that is the focus of concern. In fact, many people who have never before agreed with China's leaders find themselves similarly invested in China's trade status.
"Of course I support W.T.O, and of course this will be a very, very big thing here," said Zhang Yuan, a successful film director.
Mr. Zhang, whose work includes a current hit and several prior movies that have been banned, said he hoped for "more creative space" and less interference from government censors.
"For one thing, it will open doors to more investment into cinemas and the film industry, and that's good," he said. And he predicted that joining the world trade body would "push the leadership to relax its restrictions on subject matter" so that Chinese films could compete with the influx from Hollywood.
Even those normally at odds with the government appreciate the trade deal, convinced that the American pork, cars and dollars that are expected to flow into China if the trade vote passes will bring with it greater appreciation for liberal ideals.
"W.T.O membership might not serve to invoke a democratic breakthrough immediately, but it will certainly make Chinese people exposed as never before to liberal values and democratic institutions," said Liu Junning, who was recently fired from his job at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences for his reformist political stance. "Opening up is sometimes more important than reform for China."
And in the past 20 years, Chinese have seen how economics can drive vast social change. Most Chinese feel infinitely freer than a decade ago -- to travel, to make work choices, even -- among friends -- to make jokes about the government -- even though the Communist Party has maintained a political monopoly.
"The transformation of the economy that started in the 1980's has had all sorts of political and cultural effects in the last decade, and that's true despite 1989 and the lack of significant political reform," said Mr. Zhang, the director, referring to the year when the government violently suppressed demonstrations in Tiananmen Square.
A commitment to the World Trade Organization will set off a new round of social and political changes, experts here say. "The political and social effects will be much more immediate than the economic, said Yan Xuetong, a researcher at the Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
In state sectors like banking, insurance and telecommunication, which would all have to open up to foreign companies, managers would have to change their practices in order to survive, often with an extended ripple effect.
China's banks would have to come up with better loan programs to assist the poor with college tuition, and factories would have to honor contracts that are now routinely breached. But Mr. Yan said the biggest boon would be less tangible, "changing people's attitudes and their psychology in important and positive ways."
In some areas -- like law -- the link between joining the world trade body and social change is quite direct. Mr. Zhou, the lawyer, said he likes to think of W.T.O. membership as "reformatting" Chinese business and legal culture.
He said that many offices in China, like the trademark bureau, are run according internal rules and regulations that are not publicly available. But, he predicted, if China enters the World Trade Organization, "disputes like this will be solved by the courts, not by bureaucratic means."
"The agreement will affect not just trade law and copyright law, but also civil and criminal procedure laws," he said. "Entry into W.T.O. will help clean up and regularize the legislative and judicial systems."
In other areas, the influence will be more subtle.
An Dun, a best-selling author and journalist, welcomes the trade bill for the increased copyright protection it will bring to a country where pirated books and compact discs generally outnumber legitimate ones.
But Ms. An, who has at times clashed with authorities over her frank discussion of teenage pregnancies, infidelity and prostitution, said she also has a larger hope: that joining the world economic community will lead to greater freedom of speech, so that she can write some books she still dares not write today.
"Of course, the structure of publishing can't change quickly because publishers are controlled by the state," she said, sipping tea in a stylish suit, about to fly off on a national book tour. "But the control is a deep thing, partly in people's minds. And, with more intellectual commerce between China and the West, people's thoughts and concepts can change."
She and others predicted that more liberal trade practices might well induce the government to adopt a new publishing law that would permit private publishers, albeit with some restrictions, a proposal that has been circulating in government circles for several years.
Despite their nearly boundless hope for the trade deal, most informed Chinese acknowledge that it will also mean considerable economic pain. Indeed, many people in and out of the government see the trade deal as a kind of tough love that will help the central government make the difficult changes that it is unable or unwilling to make by itself.
"Today there is no leader like Deng Xiaoping, and the leadership must strike a balance between different political groups," said Mr. Xu, the financial analyst. "They lack the power to overcome the resistance of groups who are hurt by reform, and that's why globalization has been slowing down, like a train losing steam.
"The leaders are counting on outside forces, on global competition, to overcome that resistance and push the transformation of the economy. And they are willing to risk higher unemployment and instability in the short term for economic efficiency and growth in the long run, as they see few other ways."
With hopes running so high and a new deal between China and the European Union now sealed, a no vote from Congress would be emotionally devastating, experts say.
"Because this agreement is so good for us, they would not see rejection of this trade measure as just an act of Congress, but as a major restatement of policy -- a declaration that we see them as the enemy," said Samuel R. Berger, President Clinton's national security adviser. "The consequences could be enormous."
The shock will be greatly magnified because the Chinese news media have not said much about the heated debates in America, featuring instead mostly supporters.:
