MSNBC News / By Tom Curry WASHINGTON, May 24 - With a crucial debate on liberalizing trade with China just hours away, supporters seemed confident they had the votes to win. But opponents insisted the battle was not over and both sides planned to lobby members of the House of Representatives right up to decision time about 5 p.m. ET.
REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC vote-counters were confident they would deliver slightly more than the 218 votes needed to grant permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to China in a do-or-die vote pitting organized labor against corporate America in one of the biggest legislative battles of Clinton's presidency. "I expect to pass that bill," Rep. Dick Armey, R-Tex., the House majority leader told reporters Tuesday. "I expect it to be one of the more exciting 15 minutes on the floor of the House," he said, hinting at the uncertainty right up to the final roll call surrounding the vote on Wednesday. It will take 218 votes to secure passage.
Armey said he personally was appealing to five or six undecided Republican representatives on Tuesday in an effort to sway them towards voting for the bill. When a reporter asked Armey what more could be said at this point to woo the undecided, he joked "'please never hurts."
Meanwhile, the issue spilled into the presidential race when the United Auto Workers union, traditionally a staunch backer of Democratic presidential nominees, said it will consider endorsing prospective Green Party candidate Ralph Nader because of dissatisfaction with Vice President Al Gore's support of the bill.
Gore, assured of the Democratic nomination, and the Clinton administration have strong Republican support to grant Beijing PNTR.
And anti-PNTR forces suffered a setback when four uncommitted Democrats, Reps. Gregory Meeks of New York, Allen Boyd of Florida, and Ruben Hinojosa and Silvestre Reyes of Texas announced their support for the bill. They also picked up the support of Democratic Caucus Chairman Martin Frost of Texas, the highest ranking Democrat to endorse the bill.
Late Tuesday, however, Rep. Eva Clayton, R-NC, who had been one of the undecided, told NBC News that she intended to vote against the bill, saying there are too many unskilled workers in her district who she fears might lose their jobs if the bill passes.
In an attempt to persuade through legislation, the Clinton Administration and the Republican leadership joined forces. A "new markets initiative," unveiled Tuesday by President Clinton and House Speaker Dennis Hastert, is expected to persuade some undecided Democrats to vote for PNTR, among them Rep. Paul Kanjorski D-Penn.
The measure will send new federal aid to workers whose jobs are lost because an expected increase in imports from China.
"At the end of the day, this will look like a good day for them (supporters of PNTR)," said Fred Clarke, spokesman for House Minority Whip David Bonior, D- Mich., who is leading the charge to defeat the bill. But Clarke insisted that "both sides are within striking distance. It is too close to call."
Nader also pitched in to the lobbying Tuesday, making the case against PNTR to House Budget Committee chairman John Kasich, R-Ohio, with whom Nader has worked in the past on cutting "corporate welfare."
Throughout the halls of Congress, the lobbying was intense.
Thomas Buffenbarger, president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, was on Capitol Hill Tuesday to make his final appeal to Rep. Bud Cramer, D-Ala. Buffenbarger's message: "this vote is not about opening up markets in China, this is about moving American factories in China." Buffenbarger noted that his union has 6,000 members who live - and vote- in Cramer's district. But his efforts were unsuccessful: Cramer announced later that he plans to vote for the trade bill.
China trade advocates - which include much of corporate America - suggested they would prevail if they could just obtain the support of at least half the remaining fence-sitters.
Supporters of the bill contend that a vote against permanent normal trade relations will fortify the conservative and heavy-handed elements of the Beijing government just when the country appears to be on the brink of some reform. They say America is giving up very little with a "yes" vote; that China will be the one that will significantly reduce tariffs, permit partial foreign ownership of key industries like telecommunication and banking, and ultimately liberalize its social and political policies as a result of the increased contact with the democratic world.
But the labor movement, and other opponents, say more than 800,000 jobs will be lost as American companies set up manufacturing plants in China, not just to serve Chinese consumers, but also as a base of low-wage operations to serve customers all over the world. What's more they argue that by granting permanent trade relations - as opposed to reviewing the relations every year as it is now done - the United States will cede any leverage it has to influence Beijing on child labor laws, pollution, religious freedom and a slew of other concerns.
The bill would grant China permanent normal trading relations as part of its impending entry into the World Trade Organization, the Geneva-based organization that sets rules for trade and adjudicates disputes among members.
In return for America's support for its bid to join the WTO, China would dismantle barriers that U.S. corporations and farmers have long complained about.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.:
