New York Times / By STEVEN GREENHOUSE
The American labor movement is badly divided on political strategy after last week's vote in favor of the China trade bill, which labor opposed. And some union leaders and Democratic consultants say this split could set back Vice President Al Gore's electoral chances as well as Democratic hopes of regaining control of the House of Representatives. Angry about the trade bill, two of the nation's most powerful unions -- the Teamsters and the United Automobile Workers -- are showing little inclination to embrace Mr. Gore, who backed the bill, and have threatened to cancel endorsements of several House Democrats who voted for it.
But John J. Sweeney, the A.F.L.-C.I.O.'s president, is pushing the labor federation's 68 member unions to line up behind Mr. Gore and House Democrats in general to increase their prospects in November.
Nonetheless, Mr. Sweeney acknowledged that many of the labor federation's 13 million members may be so upset about the China bill that they will sit out the November elections, a development that could hurt Mr. Gore worst in the industrial swing states of the Midwest.
Referring to the trade fight, Richard Trumka, the A.F.L.-C.I.O.'s secretary-treasurer, said, "It's going to make a difficult job more difficult."
David E. Bonior of Michigan, the House Democratic whip who has repeatedly said the trade battle could hurt his party's chances, has consulted with labor leaders in recent days to try to rally union support behind the Democrats, who need to pick up six seats to regain control of the House.
On Wednesday, the House voted 237 to 197 in favor of granting permanent normal trade relations to China, with labor lobbying fervently against the bill and business and President Clinton backing it. Seventy-three Democrats voted in favor.
Union leaders said they opposed the bill because of violations of human rights in China and because they feared the legislation would encourage American companies to move factories and jobs to China.
James P. Hoffa, the Teamsters' president, and Stephen Yokich, the U.A.W.'s president, said last week that Mr. Gore's support of the trade bill made it less likely that their unions would endorse him. Mr. Yokich has even suggested his union might endorse Ralph Nader, a prospect some political experts call unlikely.
For all the complaining within the labor movement about the Democrats, many union leaders say that labor does not have many options in November because most Republicans supported the trade bill. And when the dust settles, many labor leaders say, most of labor will back Democratic candidates because they back unions on many issues far more than Republicans do.
Saying their members felt betrayed, the Teamsters have canceled their endorsement of Lois Capps, a California Democrat who supported the trade bill. She won in 1998 with 55 percent of the vote, helped by heavy labor campaigning on her behalf. The Teamsters and Auto Workers also said they would withdraw their endorsement of another Democrat who backed the bill, Sander M. Levin of Michigan, who is considered to have a safe seat. The Steelworkers union is also reassessing support of several House Democrats.
"There will definitely be some districts where we go after some people who voted wrong," said Michael Mathis, the Teamsters' political director.
The Teamsters have also warned that they might cancel endorsements of three other House Democrats: Tom Sawyer of Ohio, Diana DeGette of Colorado and Dennis Moore of Kansas. Although Mr. Moore represents a rural area, labor unions played a major role in bringing him a narrow victory in 1998 after they saw a seat the Democrats could pick up.
Many Teamster officials voiced little concern that their strategy might jeopardize the Democrats' prospects. Teamster leaders said labor should not reward Democrats who backed the trade bill even if the Republicans running in those districts are less friendly to labor.
In contrast, Mr. Sweeney is pushing unions to back Mr. Gore and most Democratic House candidates because in his view they are more likely to back labor on issues like Social Security and the minimum wage than are the Republicans.
Labor leaders say rank-and-file anger over the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993 was a major reason the Democrats lost control of the House in 1994. Some labor leaders say dismay over the China fight could similarly help the Republicans this November.
"There are many union members for whom this is a really, really serious and intense personal issue," said David Axelrod, a Democratic consultant. "These are some of the same people the Democrats will be relying on in some swing districts and in some swing states. There is a concern that some union members will walk away in frustration over this."
If the trade fight had any silver lining for the Democrats, it was that the support for the bill shown by President Clinton and 73 House Democrats could win them contributions from corporations that favor normal trade relations with China. Since early 1999, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, business has made $520 million in soft money and political action committee contributions to both parties, while labor unions have contributed $35 million.
David J. Leland, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, predicted that the China battle would not hurt his party this fall. "Obviously members of labor disagree with the vice president and some members of Congress on this," he said. "But over all, these union members understand that working families are better served by making sure that Al Gore is the next president."
Representatives Capps and Levin said they hoped to minimize any loss of labor support by continuing to work closely with unions.
"I know the people who beseeched me not to support the bill would be upset if I did," Ms. Capps said, acknowledging that her seat was vulnerable, even before the Teamsters withdrew support. "I have a strong record on issues important to working families, like the patient's bill of rights and safety and health at the workplace."
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