from Inside China Today
BEIJING, Dec 18, 2000 -- (Agence France Presse) China hauled itself onto the doorstep of the World Trade Organization in 2000 and shook off its hangover from Asia's financial crisis, but the economic cheer was tempered by growing uncertainty at home.
A seismic change in leadership in Taiwan unsettled the 50-year status-quo with the mainland, free-wheeling sleaze further dented the authority of the ruling communists and provided a spark for sporadic flashes of worker unrest.
And despite an 18-month onslaught against the Falun Gong, the government has failed to crush the spiritual group it considers such a threat to its rule.
China will face many of the same troubles throughout 2001 as it continues streamlining the economy to meet the challenges of globalization, and a victory by Beijing in the race for the 2008 Olympic Games would provide a timely boost to battered Communist Party morale.
China invested enormous political capital in trying to complete its WTO membership during 2000, and despite marathon negotiations it failed -- but only just.
Most analysts agree China will finally end its 14-year journey for membership in early 2001, a move which will open up the vast country to outside investment and influence as never before.
China's economy turned the corner in 2000 with analysts predicting growth around eight percent compared to 7.1 percent in 1999, the lowest in a decade.
Government data paints a rosy picture -- factory production, consumer spending, investment and exports are all up -- although deflationary pressures still lurk.
The Sino-European trade deal of May 19 removed the last major hurdle to WTO entry, but it was only sealed after four grueling rounds of talks packed with brinkmanship.
The agreement mirrored the Sino-U.S. trade deal of November 1999, although niggling problems over the fine print of the EU deal boded ill for China's compliance with WTO rules.
The EU deal set the stage for the U.S. Congress to take the momentous step of normalizing trade relations with China on September 20, although the motion was only passed after a bitter debate.
The relationship between the world's only superpower and Asia's largest emerging power gradually returned to normality as the two sides drew a line under NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in May 1999.
China still grumbles the attack was deliberate but nonetheless was happy to host the cream of the U.S. defense establishment during 2000.
However the specter of Taiwan haunts Sino-U.S. ties and trouble could be brewing as China mulls how to deal with Chen Shui-bian, who swept to a remarkable victory in March's Taiwanese presidential elections.
Beijing campaigned vociferously and threateningly against Chen, repeatedly warning of war if the island moved towards independence.
But the threats appeared to backfire as Chen stormed to victory, bringing the first non-Kuomintang government to power on the island since the split with the mainland in 1949.
Since he took office in May cross-strait relations have reached an uneasy stalemate -- Beijing demands Chen embrace the "One China" principle accepting the island as part of China, while Chen declines and offers unconditional dialogue.
"I can't see this situation changing next year," said Joseph Cheng, a China expert at City University in Hong Kong.
"China will be wary of causing a stir ahead of Taiwan's legislative elections at the end of the year and it will want to watch the new U.S. president's approach to Taiwan carefully," he said.
Cheng said China's leadership could also be distracted by power struggles within the Communist Party as factions jockey for position ahead of the 2002 party congress where Jiang Zemin is expected to step down from the presidency.
"There is a lack of consensus and resistance to Jiang's attempts to put his people in key positions. This will certainly mean there is less political will to tackle awkward problems," he said.
Among the problems are the Falun Gong which gave a rude reminder to the leadership with a 1,000-strong protest at the October 1 national day celebrations that an 18-month crackdown has failed to break their spirit.
There is also mounting social unrest, often caused by corruption and the over-taxing of peasants as well as the reform of state-owned enterprises which has thrown tens of millions out of work.
The government made the fight against corruption a high-priority in 2000, busting a series of vast scams including a smuggling scandal in Fujian province which involved hundreds of officials.
But despite the execution of a vice chairman of parliament and the impending trial of a deputy minister, there is widespread cynicism among the population that only the careless or badly-connected get caught.
((c) 2000 Agence France Presse):
